Heads and Tails

When it comes to probabilities, explanations always start with the correct coins, playing cards, or dice. With such examples, everything is much simpler and clearer why betting at 유로88. There is some kind of outcome that interests us and there is a set of all possible outcomes. For example, we want to get an ace of hearts from a deck of 36 cards: there is only one ace, and we have 36 options for which card to choose. So it turns out that our probability is 1/36 (2.77% ) for success in such an experiment.

But in real life, everything turns out to be much more complicated: the dice are uneven, the coins are also not perfect. And where, then, can we get the probability of the desired event?

The concept of frequency probability comes to the rescue. I have, for example, an ordinary coin. Maybe she’s a little crooked, maybe her center of gravity is shifted somewhere, or maybe everything is in order, I don’t know. We will toss and fix when heads come up.

  • 1 throw – 1 heads. So far, 100% result.
  • 10 throws – 8 heads, 2 tails. 80% successful results.
  • 100 throws – 57 heads, 43 tails. 57% successful results.
  • 1000 throws – 532 heads, 468 tails. 53.2% successful results.
  • 10,000 tosses – 5073 heads, 4927 tails. 50.73% successful results.

You can see that the number of our successes is still higher than the number of failures, but in percentage terms it is getting smaller. It is easy to guess that with further repetitions and 벳무브, the ratio of the frequency of heads falling to the total number of throws will tend to a certain number – it will be the probability of our event.

How to evaluate a team’s chance of winning

Okay, we’ve sorted out the coin. But what about, for example, a football match? How to “measure” the probability of one of the teams winning? After all, playing a match a thousand times and measuring the frequency will no longer work, as with a coin. If we approach this issue fundamentally, then the desired probability can be obtained only knowing all the initial conditions. Since this is unattainable, there will always be some uncertainty. Ultimately, the game boils down to the fact that the players and the bookmaker need to predict such probabilities of outcomes that would be maximally close to the “true” ones.

Imagine that I start polling passers-by somewhere near a football stadium in the midst of the World Cup final. The question is simple: “Assess the teams’ chances of winning?” Different answers will sound: 99 to 1, 50 to 50, 63% to the owners, and so on. But in aggregate, with a large number of respondents, you can get a good approximation to the “true” alignment of forces.

Categories: sports